Broad variety of possibilities expected for downturn is clarified by health crisis extraordinary existence and the confusion over exact economic effects.
WTO economists conclude that the downturn is likely to surpass the trade recession caused by the 2008-09 global financial crisis
Considering the trade evidence available for the second quarter, the gloomy scenario of the April outlook, which predicted much higher health and economic costs than what had happened, seems less plausible, because it suggested deeper falls in the first and second quarters.
The World Bank, OECD and IMF have also issued projections suggesting substantial slowdowns in world trade and GDP; these are also largely in line with the WTO ‘s current year outlook. New prediction by the World Bank will see a 5.2 % decrease in global production 2020, slipping within the hopeful and negative spectrum of the WTO.
The GDP predictions of many foreign bodies 2020 are highly pessimistic. While, their exchange estimates remain largely in line with positive scenario of the WTO. Such figures suggest less pessimistic trade reaction slowing growth in GDP than was experienced during the 2008‐09 global financial crisis.
Sum up :
- World merchandise trade dropped between 13 and 32% in 2020 due to pandemic .
- Trade recovery projecting in 2021, but relies on the length of the epidemic and the success of the policy responses.
- Nearly all regions will witness double-digit decreases in trade volumes in 2020, with North America and Asian exports hit hardest.
- Trade will likely fall vertical in sectors with complex value chains, particularly electronics and automotive products.
- Services exchange may be most directly affected by COVID-19 by transport and travel restrictions.
- In 2019, amount of retail exchange dropped by 0.1 %, weighed down by international disputes and declining economic development.
- The dollar volume of exports of global goods dropped by 3 per cent to US$ 18.89 trillion.
- The volume of exports of financial services grew by 2% to 6,03 trillion USD in 2019.